National Productivity Centre

The issues of energy usage and global warming are often compounded – we are urged to cut our energy use (lower our ‘carbon footprint’) for the sake of the planet. Lately there has been some controversy over some of the ‘science’ around global warming and some commentators have suggested that this takes the heat of the need for alternative energies – we can continue to burn fossil fuels, safe(r) in the knowledge that they are not killing the planet.

However in terms of calling for energy efficiency and alternative forms of energy, the issue of global warming was always redundant. We have to examine these issues because in the not too distant future we will not have enough energy – and what we have will be very expensive.

Most of you will know that in the great freeze of January 2010, gas supplies were restricted to a number of commercial customers so that supplies could be maintained to domestic customers. Even though demand was abnormally high this is just one more sign of the UJ’s (and the world’s) impending energy crisis.

In October 2008, Ofgem (the gas and electricity supply regulator) suggested that UK domestic energy bills could rise by up to 60% over the next ten years if the economy fully recovers and there is a competitive ’dash for energy’ between countries for energy resources (See http://bit.ly/4NcTk4).

They foresee a particular problem around 2016 because a number of existing generating facilities will have closed and we will be more reliant on imported fuels.

Of course if domestic energy bills rise by 60%, commercial bills are likely to rise by at least that amount – and probably more (since there are fewer voters to appease!).

However since then this figure of 60% looks to be too optimistic and a ‘true’ figure might be much higher.

We all know that various alternative energy sources are being investigated and promoted (including the NPC as part of this website) but the UK and the world are moving too slowly to avert an energy crisis.

Making matters worse is the geo-political situation whereby energy becomes a political weapon. One nation threatens supplies to another in order to make a political point or as part of some inter-nation negotiating and bargaining.

The UK – like all other nations – has to move to a point where energy supplies are sufficient to meet demand but are also resilient and secure. The greater the proportion of demand we can fulfil from our own generating capacity, the more likely we are to have resilient and secure supplies (though the chances of us fulfilling all internal demand from internal supplies is very small).

There currently many ideas on the table but no real solutions … but each organisation has to start think through its own energy strategy … and should start by ensuring it is as energy-efficient as possible.